Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | UTC +120 UNCG -154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +17 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | UTC -0.8 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (+31.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -0.2 (-17.2) | 143.4 (+25.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -0.8 (-17.8) | 141.8 (+27.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -0.4 (-17.4) | 142.6 (+26.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -0.3 (-17.3) | 144.8 (+24.2) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UNCG 85 – 80 UTC |
| Jan 1, 2026 | UNCG 77 – 72 UTC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UTC 75 – 63 UNCG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UNCG 78 – 75 UTC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UTC 89 – 61 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 14-4 |
| Home | 9-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#169) | 3.0 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#222) | 0.37 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#207) | 0.48 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#169) | 0.545 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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