What's the point of robbery when nothing is worth taking? "Stand and Deliver" - Adam and the Ants
Ohio Valley Conference · Ellis T. Johnson Arena · February 18, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MORE -9.5 Home covered
O/U 130.5 Under
Money MORE -500 / LIN +450
Model Predictions
Spread Total MORE win
Actual MORE +13 129 Won
Massey MORE -9.3 (+3.7) — —
Massey Totals — 129.1 (-0.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 93% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 93% ✓
Baseline Plus ML MORE -8.4 (+4.6) 132.5 (-3.5) 80% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ MORE -8.4 (+4.6) 130.7 (-1.7) 82% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML MORE -8.1 (+4.9) 131.5 (-2.5) 79% ✓
Baseline ML MORE -7.7 (+5.3) 131.5 (-2.5) 78% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 31, 2026 LIN 79 – 78 MORE
Jan 1, 2026 LIN 77 – 64 MORE
Mar 6, 2025 LIN 73 – 65 MORE
Feb 14, 2025 LIN 73 – 60 MORE
Jan 18, 2025 MORE 82 – 65 LIN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MORE LIN
Overall 22-12 11-21
Conference 14-4 6-12
Home 14-2 9-4
Away 8-9 2-14
Neutral 0-1 0-3
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 66.2 67.6
Avg Pts Against 68.2 76.1
Massey -5.6 (#271) -11.2 (#341)
Bradley-Terry -0.16 (#191) -2.05 (#345)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.50 (#216) -2.37 (#336)
RPI 0.511 (#150) 0.400 (#344)
Shooting & Four Factors MORE LIN
FG% 42.5% 42.0%
3PT% 34.5% 35.5%
REB / G 34.4 32.8
OREB / G 9.2 8.2
AST / TO 0.89 0.82
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.9% 48.4%
TOV% 20.0% 20.0%
ORB% 28.1% 23.2%
FT Rate 28.0% 17.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.0% 51.9%
Opp TOV% 15.7% 18.1%
DRB% 74.9% 69.4%
Opp FT Rate 21.2% 21.7%

Game Analysis

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