Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | MSM +100 NIA +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +4 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -1.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -0.2 (+4.2) | 130.5 (+5.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -0.6 (+4.6) | 129.2 (+6.8) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -0.4 (+4.4) | 132.7 (+3.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -0.1 (+4.1) | 133.1 (+2.9) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MSM 76 – 63 NIA |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MSM 68 – 58 NIA |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MSM 84 – 83 NIA |
| Jan 5, 2025 | MSM 68 – 62 NIA |
| Mar 3, 2024 | MSM 91 – 72 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 5-9 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.8 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#286) | -3.8 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#321) | -0.17 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#320) | -0.51 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#309) | 0.490 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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