Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | MSM -215 NIA +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +6 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -8.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (-12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -5.8 (+0.2) | 138.5 (-8.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -5.6 (+0.4) | 138.7 (-8.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -5.9 (+0.1) | 139.8 (-9.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -6.0 (+0.0) | 139.7 (-9.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MSM 76 – 63 NIA |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MSM 68 – 58 NIA |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MSM 84 – 83 NIA |
| Mar 3, 2024 | MSM 91 – 72 NIA |
| Jan 21, 2024 | NIA 82 – 71 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 9-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#221) | -7.6 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#148) | -0.82 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#156) | -1.65 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#150) | 0.452 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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