Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MSM -250 NIA +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +11 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -7.9 (-18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -3.2 (-14.2) | 148.5 (+4.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -3.8 (-14.8) | 146.0 (+7.0) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -3.7 (-14.7) | 148.7 (+4.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -3.8 (-14.8) | 150.8 (+2.2) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MSM 76 – 63 NIA |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MSM 68 – 58 NIA |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MSM 84 – 83 NIA |
| Jan 5, 2025 | MSM 68 – 62 NIA |
| Mar 3, 2024 | MSM 91 – 72 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-9 |
| Home | 8-5 | 5-9 |
| Away | 5-13 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#200) | -6.1 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#296) | -1.06 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#279) | -1.46 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#294) | 0.437 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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