Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | NIA -188 MSM +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +19 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | NIA -2.2 (-21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (+14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -1.8 (-20.8) | 140.7 (+22.3) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -1.2 (-20.2) | 139.6 (+23.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -2.2 (-21.2) | 140.1 (+22.9) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -1.6 (-20.6) | 141.6 (+21.4) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MSM 76 – 63 NIA |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MSM 68 – 58 NIA |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MSM 84 – 83 NIA |
| Jan 5, 2025 | MSM 68 – 62 NIA |
| Jan 21, 2024 | NIA 82 – 71 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 5-9 | 8-5 |
| Away | 10-6 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#253) | -3.5 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#253) | -1.35 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#265) | -1.36 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#258) | 0.431 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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