Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | NIA +150 MSM -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +10 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -2.6 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -1.4 (-8.6) | 131.6 (-5.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -3.9 (-6.1) | 129.1 (-3.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -2.5 (-7.5) | 130.5 (-4.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -2.4 (-7.6) | 131.8 (-5.8) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MSM 76 – 63 NIA |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MSM 84 – 83 NIA |
| Jan 5, 2025 | MSM 68 – 62 NIA |
| Mar 3, 2024 | MSM 91 – 72 NIA |
| Jan 21, 2024 | NIA 82 – 71 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-9 |
| Home | 6-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-14 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -15.4 (#352) | -9.4 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#339) | -1.22 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.07 (#339) | -1.70 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#333) | 0.453 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 27.4 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 64.2% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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