Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | MSM -375 NIA +295 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +13 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -7.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -4.7 (+8.3) | 131.3 (+7.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -5.8 (+7.2) | 132.2 (+6.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -4.7 (+8.3) | 129.9 (+9.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -5.2 (+7.8) | 129.5 (+9.5) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 19, 2026 | MSM 68 – 58 NIA |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MSM 84 – 83 NIA |
| Jan 5, 2025 | MSM 68 – 62 NIA |
| Mar 3, 2024 | MSM 91 – 72 NIA |
| Jan 21, 2024 | NIA 82 – 71 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-15 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-7 |
| Away | 7-11 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -9.3 (#302) | -13.5 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#262) | -2.25 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#275) | -2.90 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#254) | 0.418 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 28.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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