Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | NIA -120 MSM +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +1 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | NIA -0.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (+28.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -0.5 (-1.5) | 135.5 (+31.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -0.4 (-0.6) | 135.2 (+31.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -0.1 (-1.1) | 137.1 (+29.9) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -0.1 (-0.9) | 136.1 (+30.9) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | MSM 76 – 63 NIA |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MSM 68 – 58 NIA |
| Jan 5, 2025 | MSM 68 – 62 NIA |
| Mar 3, 2024 | MSM 91 – 72 NIA |
| Jan 21, 2024 | NIA 82 – 71 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 12-8 |
| Home | 6-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#304) | -6.1 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#298) | -0.38 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.15 (#316) | -0.78 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#293) | 0.502 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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