Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | PV -250 UAPB +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | PV -7.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (+18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -5.0 (+6.0) | 139.1 (+13.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -5.1 (+5.9) | 137.2 (+15.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -4.6 (+6.4) | 139.5 (+13.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -4.7 (+6.3) | 140.4 (+12.6) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UAPB 84 – 82 PV |
| Jan 13, 2026 | PV 73 – 61 UAPB |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UAPB 75 – 64 PV |
| Jan 13, 2025 | PV 75 – 64 UAPB |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UAPB 72 – 59 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-14 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#270) | -9.2 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#316) | -1.87 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#298) | -2.16 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#332) | 0.413 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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