Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | PV -230 UAPB +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +11 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | PV -11.3 (-22.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.5 (-29.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -10.0 (-21.0) | 153.3 (-14.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -8.9 (-19.9) | 153.6 (-14.6) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -8.9 (-19.9) | 152.5 (-13.5) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PV -8.4 (-19.4) | 154.2 (-15.2) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UAPB 84 – 82 PV |
| Jan 13, 2026 | PV 73 – 61 UAPB |
| Jan 13, 2025 | PV 75 – 64 UAPB |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UAPB 72 – 59 PV |
| Feb 6, 2024 | PV 75 – 74 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 3-15 |
| Home | 3-7 | 4-8 |
| Away | 2-19 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 85.7 |
| Massey | -14.4 (#354) | -22.5 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.41 (#360) | -4.39 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.04 (#360) | -5.78 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.371 (#357) | 0.319 (#364) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 28.4 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 60.4% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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