Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | PV -167 UAPB +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | PV -5.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.6 (-17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -2.8 (-1.8) | 156.9 (-7.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -4.0 (-3.0) | 157.1 (-8.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -3.8 (-2.8) | 157.7 (-8.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -3.8 (-2.8) | 158.5 (-9.5) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UAPB 84 – 82 PV |
| Jan 13, 2026 | PV 73 – 61 UAPB |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UAPB 75 – 64 PV |
| Jan 13, 2025 | PV 75 – 64 UAPB |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UAPB 72 – 59 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-15 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L7 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 83.7 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#320) | -12.3 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#277) | -1.33 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#283) | -1.90 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#299) | 0.441 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 34.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 63.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.0% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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