Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | PV -155 UAPB +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +12 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | PV -4.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.7 (-37.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -2.8 (+9.2) | 159.5 (-25.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -4.0 (+8.0) | 162.6 (-28.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -1.8 (+10.2) | 160.2 (-26.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -2.0 (+10.0) | 159.9 (-25.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UAPB 84 – 82 PV |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UAPB 75 – 64 PV |
| Jan 13, 2025 | PV 75 – 64 UAPB |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UAPB 72 – 59 PV |
| Feb 6, 2024 | PV 75 – 74 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-18 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 7-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-14 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#308) | -10.5 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#297) | -0.48 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.11 (#301) | -0.97 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#273) | 0.508 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 62.4% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.2% | 35.2% |
Game Analysis
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