Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UNH +110 UMBC -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNH +9 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UNH -0.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -0.6 (+9.6) | 138.0 (+3.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -0.8 (+9.8) | 136.6 (+4.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNH -0.0 (+9.0) | 135.7 (+5.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNH -0.3 (+8.7) | 137.0 (+4.0) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 69 UNH |
| Feb 14, 2026 | UMBC 85 – 63 UNH |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 74 UNH |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UNH 79 – 78 UMBC |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNH 79 – 76 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNH | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#285) | -3.3 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#271) | -0.39 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#267) | -0.65 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#266) | 0.481 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNH | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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