Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | SJSU -138 UNM +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +28 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -1.1 (-26.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -0.1 (-28.1) | 144.7 (+19.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -1.5 (-26.5) | 141.6 (+22.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -0.4 (-28.4) | 145.3 (+18.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -0.3 (-28.3) | 145.8 (+18.2) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UNM 93 – 77 SJSU |
| Feb 1, 2026 | UNM 90 – 80 SJSU |
| Dec 21, 2025 | UNM 88 – 65 SJSU |
| Mar 13, 2025 | UNM 63 – 52 SJSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | SJSU 71 – 70 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 15-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 80.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#101) | 9.2 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#79) | 1.62 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#75) | 1.86 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#68) | 0.576 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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