Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | MISS +138 MSST -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +8 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -3.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.8 (+9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -1.9 (-6.1) | 130.3 (-0.3) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -3.7 (-4.3) | 129.0 (+1.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -2.3 (-5.7) | 130.4 (-0.4) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -2.3 (-5.7) | 130.5 (-0.5) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MSST 90 – 78 MISS |
| Jan 18, 2026 | MISS 68 – 67 MSST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MSST 81 – 71 MISS |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MSST 84 – 81 MISS |
| Feb 22, 2024 | MSST 83 – 71 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-10 | 12-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 61.0 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#115) | 10.2 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#146) | 1.70 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#125) | 2.15 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#140) | 0.558 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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