Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MSST -300 MISS +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +12 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -7.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -6.0 (+6.0) | 144.0 (+10.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -6.8 (+5.2) | 144.1 (+9.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -5.9 (+6.1) | 142.8 (+11.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -6.0 (+6.0) | 144.0 (+10.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MSST 90 – 78 MISS |
| Jan 18, 2026 | MISS 68 – 67 MSST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MSST 81 – 71 MISS |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MSST 84 – 81 MISS |
| Jan 31, 2024 | MISS 86 – 82 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#43) | 7.7 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#38) | 2.28 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#28) | 2.63 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#30) | 0.602 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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