Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -175 MSST +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +12 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | MISS -5.0 (-17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+22.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -5.0 (-17.0) | 144.5 (+23.5) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -5.3 (-17.3) | 142.2 (+25.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -5.0 (-17.0) | 143.7 (+24.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -4.6 (-16.6) | 146.3 (+21.7) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | MISS 68 – 67 MSST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MSST 81 – 71 MISS |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MSST 84 – 81 MISS |
| Feb 22, 2024 | MSST 83 – 71 MISS |
| Jan 31, 2024 | MISS 86 – 82 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-9 | 8-8 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#81) | 5.6 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#83) | 0.95 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#84) | 1.49 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#120) | 0.521 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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