Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MSST -240 MISS +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +3 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -4.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -5.3 (-2.3) | 142.5 (+22.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -3.2 (-0.2) | 143.3 (+21.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -3.4 (-0.4) | 144.5 (+20.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -3.5 (-0.5) | 146.8 (+18.2) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MSST 90 – 78 MISS |
| Jan 18, 2026 | MISS 68 – 67 MSST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MSST 81 – 71 MISS |
| Feb 22, 2024 | MSST 83 – 71 MISS |
| Jan 31, 2024 | MISS 86 – 82 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#20) | 16.6 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.36 (#16) | 4.06 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.23 (#17) | 5.39 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#21) | 0.651 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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