Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -115 MSST -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +4 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -0.3 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+29.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -2.1 (+1.9) | 141.1 (+26.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -0.4 (+3.6) | 138.7 (+29.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -2.1 (+1.9) | 139.3 (+28.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -2.2 (+1.8) | 140.2 (+27.8) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MSST 90 – 78 MISS |
| Jan 18, 2026 | MISS 68 – 67 MSST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MSST 81 – 71 MISS |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MSST 84 – 81 MISS |
| Feb 22, 2024 | MSST 83 – 71 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#75) | 11.8 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#9) | 2.01 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#14) | 2.80 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#14) | 0.597 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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