Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MISS -155 MSST +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +10 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | MISS -4.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -5.0 (-15.0) | 147.7 (+4.3) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -5.1 (-15.1) | 149.4 (+2.6) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -5.6 (-15.6) | 150.1 (+1.9) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -6.1 (-16.1) | 149.1 (+2.9) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MSST 90 – 78 MISS |
| Jan 18, 2026 | MISS 68 – 67 MSST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MSST 84 – 81 MISS |
| Feb 22, 2024 | MSST 83 – 71 MISS |
| Jan 31, 2024 | MISS 86 – 82 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#26) | 15.0 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.46 (#7) | 3.09 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.57 (#6) | 3.64 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#12) | 0.618 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.76 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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