Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | JKST -110 ALCN +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +15 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | JKST -1.7 (-16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -0.7 (-14.3) | 145.1 (-10.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -0.3 (-14.7) | 142.5 (-7.5) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JKST -0.5 (-15.5) | 145.8 (-10.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JKST -0.4 (-15.4) | 146.3 (-11.3) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ALCN 83 – 65 JKST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | JKST 89 – 86 ALCN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | JKST 71 – 63 ALCN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | JKST 72 – 69 ALCN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ALCN 87 – 73 JKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JKST | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 7-2 | 7-2 |
| Away | 6-14 | 10-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#311) | -6.3 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#301) | 0.02 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#321) | -0.08 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#299) | 0.508 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JKST | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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