Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | FRES -125 CSU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +3 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | FRES -0.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (-15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -0.0 (-3.0) | 132.8 (-15.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -0.8 (-3.8) | 128.6 (-11.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -1.1 (-4.1) | 135.3 (-18.3) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -0.7 (-3.7) | 136.7 (-19.7) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CSU 67 – 63 FRES |
| Feb 25, 2026 | CSU 74 – 70 FRES |
| Jan 14, 2026 | FRES 79 – 69 CSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | CSU 69 – 64 FRES |
| Jan 8, 2025 | CSU 91 – 64 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#155) | 3.9 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#182) | 0.13 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#166) | 0.22 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#189) | 0.508 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 5.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 18.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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