Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | NAVY -450 L-MD +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +12 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -13.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (-14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -11.3 (+0.7) | 134.3 (-16.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -10.8 (+1.2) | 131.1 (-13.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -12.1 (-0.1) | 136.2 (-18.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -11.3 (+0.7) | 136.3 (-18.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | NAVY 78 – 51 L-MD |
| Jan 31, 2026 | NAVY 87 – 71 L-MD |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 68 L-MD |
| Jan 11, 2025 | L-MD 75 – 74 NAVY |
| Mar 6, 2024 | NAVY 64 – 48 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 9-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#180) | -9.9 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#214) | -1.65 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#220) | -2.02 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#186) | 0.416 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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