Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -163 RAD +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +10 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -4.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -2.6 (+7.4) | 131.4 (+4.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -4.0 (+6.0) | 128.7 (+7.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -3.0 (+7.0) | 131.1 (+4.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -2.9 (+7.1) | 131.8 (+4.2) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | LONG 90 – 74 RAD |
| Jan 17, 2026 | RAD 85 – 83 LONG |
| Feb 8, 2025 | RAD 71 – 69 LONG |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LONG 77 – 74 RAD |
| Feb 24, 2024 | RAD 88 – 82 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 8-8 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#150) | 0.5 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#204) | -0.15 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#203) | -0.26 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#188) | 0.504 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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