Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | USA -600 ULM +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +36 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | USA -12.2 (+23.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -11.4 (+24.6) | 136.0 (-10.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -11.0 (+25.0) | 135.1 (-9.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -12.2 (+23.8) | 134.9 (-8.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -11.5 (+24.5) | 134.5 (-8.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | USA 89 – 54 ULM |
| Dec 18, 2025 | USA 96 – 92 ULM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | ULM 62 – 58 USA |
| Jan 28, 2025 | ULM 77 – 66 USA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USA 80 – 69 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 63.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#127) | -5.8 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#197) | -0.81 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#172) | -0.92 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#198) | 0.463 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 20.8% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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