Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | MRST +125 FAIR -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +9 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -0.6 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -0.7 (-8.3) | 129.7 (+1.3) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -0.5 (-8.5) | 130.1 (+0.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -1.0 (-8.0) | 130.0 (+1.0) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -0.3 (-8.7) | 130.8 (+0.2) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | FAIR 63 – 60 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MRST 82 – 67 FAIR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | FAIR 59 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MRST 61 – 51 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FAIR 65 – 61 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-11 |
| Home | 5-10 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#307) | -3.9 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#320) | -0.92 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#325) | -1.14 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#316) | 0.468 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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