Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | MRST -300 FAIR +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +10 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -10.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (-27.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -7.2 (+2.8) | 135.1 (-23.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -8.6 (+1.4) | 134.7 (-22.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -9.1 (+0.9) | 134.5 (-22.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -8.7 (+1.3) | 135.6 (-23.6) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | FAIR 63 – 60 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MRST 82 – 67 FAIR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | FAIR 59 – 56 MRST |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FAIR 65 – 61 MRST |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MRST 58 – 55 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-10 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 9-5 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#220) | -9.9 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#99) | -1.17 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#139) | -1.89 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#117) | 0.440 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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