Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR +105 MRST -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +3 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -3.9 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -2.7 (+5.7) | 131.7 (-8.7) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -2.9 (+5.9) | 132.3 (-9.3) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -2.7 (+5.7) | 135.3 (-12.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -2.8 (+5.8) | 132.9 (-9.9) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | MRST 82 – 67 FAIR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | FAIR 59 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MRST 61 – 51 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FAIR 65 – 61 MRST |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MRST 58 – 55 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 63.9 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#257) | 1.0 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#222) | 0.02 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#233) | -0.09 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#183) | 0.523 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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