Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR +210 MRST -260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +3 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -5.8 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -6.0 (+9.0) | 135.5 (-20.5) | 29% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | MRST -4.2 (+7.2) | 132.3 (-17.3) | 40% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | MRST -6.4 (+9.4) | 134.9 (-19.9) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -6.1 (+9.1) | 135.6 (-20.6) | 26% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | FAIR 63 – 60 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MRST 82 – 67 FAIR |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MRST 61 – 51 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FAIR 65 – 61 MRST |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MRST 58 – 55 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 20-10 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 64.5 |
| Massey | -12.3 (#340) | -3.3 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#296) | 0.58 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#321) | 0.15 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#291) | 0.522 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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