Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | MRST +125 FAIR -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +3 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -1.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (-21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -0.5 (+2.5) | 131.8 (-18.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -0.5 (+2.5) | 133.1 (-20.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -0.3 (+2.7) | 134.5 (-21.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -1.1 (+1.9) | 135.0 (-22.0) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | FAIR 63 – 60 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MRST 82 – 67 FAIR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | FAIR 59 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MRST 61 – 51 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FAIR 65 – 61 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.2 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#197) | -0.3 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#231) | -0.08 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#241) | -0.22 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#220) | 0.512 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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