Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR -225 MRST +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +4 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -2.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -2.7 (+1.3) | 128.7 (-2.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -2.8 (+1.2) | 130.8 (-4.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -2.9 (+1.1) | 130.9 (-4.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -2.8 (+1.2) | 129.7 (-3.7) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | FAIR 63 – 60 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MRST 82 – 67 FAIR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | FAIR 59 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MRST 61 – 51 FAIR |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MRST 58 – 55 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 10-6 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 62.2 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#166) | -2.5 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#167) | -0.47 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#176) | -0.73 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#129) | 0.478 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.