Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MRST -410 FAIR +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +15 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -11.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -9.1 (+5.9) | 134.5 (+14.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -9.8 (+5.2) | 132.7 (+16.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -10.8 (+4.2) | 133.2 (+15.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -9.9 (+5.1) | 135.8 (+13.2) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | FAIR 63 – 60 MRST |
| Feb 7, 2025 | FAIR 59 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MRST 61 – 51 FAIR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FAIR 65 – 61 MRST |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MRST 58 – 55 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.9 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#116) | -4.9 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#168) | -0.55 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#158) | -0.82 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#155) | 0.474 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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