Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | MER -250 WCU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +3 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -4.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -2.8 (-5.8) | 141.4 (-2.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -2.9 (-5.9) | 139.4 (-0.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -3.0 (-6.0) | 140.8 (-1.8) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -2.9 (-5.9) | 142.3 (-3.3) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | WCU 77 – 73 MER |
| Feb 26, 2026 | WCU 78 – 74 MER |
| Jan 22, 2026 | MER 88 – 76 WCU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MER 67 – 66 WCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MER 81 – 69 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#237) | -4.7 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#269) | -0.68 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#254) | -0.90 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#269) | 0.472 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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