Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -115 GAST -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -0.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.5 (+20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -0.5 (+5.5) | 131.6 (+13.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -0.2 (+4.8) | 128.9 (+16.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -0.4 (+5.4) | 130.5 (+14.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -0.1 (+5.1) | 130.9 (+14.1) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | GAST 82 – 81 ARST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ARST 85 – 59 GAST |
| Dec 30, 2023 | GAST 91 – 90 ARST |
| Mar 5, 2022 | GAST 65 – 62 ARST |
| Mar 6, 2021 | GAST 71 – 68 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-8 | 10-9 |
| Away | 2-11 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#303) | -4.8 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#317) | -1.16 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#318) | -1.25 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#343) | 0.437 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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