Georgia State
Panthers
65
–
62
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Hercules Tires Sun Belt
Arkansas State
Red Wolves
Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +3 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -1.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (-9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -1.8 (+1.2) | 136.5 (-9.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -2.3 (+0.7) | 135.5 (-8.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -1.1 (+1.9) | 135.5 (-8.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -1.3 (+1.7) | 135.1 (-8.1) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | GAST 82 – 81 ARST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ARST 85 – 59 GAST |
| Dec 30, 2023 | GAST 91 – 90 ARST |
| Feb 18, 2023 | ARST 75 – 70 GAST |
| Mar 6, 2021 | GAST 71 – 68 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 8-7 |
| Home | 8-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#177) | -1.5 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#161) | 0.38 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#148) | 0.47 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#193) | 0.522 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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