Georgia State
Panthers
71
–
68
FINAL
Neutral
Sun Belt Conference Championship
Arkansas State
Red Wolves
Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | GAST -333 ARST +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -6.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -5.4 (-2.4) | 146.7 (-7.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -4.2 (-1.2) | 144.9 (-5.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -6.1 (-3.1) | 145.5 (-6.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -5.9 (-2.9) | 145.1 (-6.1) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | GAST 82 – 81 ARST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ARST 85 – 59 GAST |
| Dec 30, 2023 | GAST 91 – 90 ARST |
| Feb 18, 2023 | ARST 75 – 70 GAST |
| Mar 5, 2022 | GAST 65 – 62 ARST |
Game Analysis
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