Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | GAST +170 ARST -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +1 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -5.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -3.4 (+4.4) | 148.2 (+14.8) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -4.8 (+5.8) | 147.7 (+15.3) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -3.4 (+4.4) | 144.3 (+18.7) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -3.5 (+4.5) | 145.1 (+17.9) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2025 | ARST 85 – 59 GAST |
| Dec 30, 2023 | GAST 91 – 90 ARST |
| Feb 18, 2023 | ARST 75 – 70 GAST |
| Mar 5, 2022 | GAST 65 – 62 ARST |
| Mar 6, 2021 | GAST 71 – 68 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 78.0 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#282) | 0.7 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#261) | 0.91 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#252) | 0.98 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#272) | 0.587 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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