Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -2500 GAST +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +26 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -17.4 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -13.5 (+12.5) | 150.8 (-6.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -13.7 (+12.3) | 152.2 (-8.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -13.7 (+12.3) | 149.0 (-5.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -13.7 (+12.3) | 148.7 (-4.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | GAST 82 – 81 ARST |
| Dec 30, 2023 | GAST 91 – 90 ARST |
| Feb 18, 2023 | ARST 75 – 70 GAST |
| Mar 5, 2022 | GAST 65 – 62 ARST |
| Mar 6, 2021 | GAST 71 – 68 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-6 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#96) | -8.7 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#82) | -1.42 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#81) | -1.98 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#54) | 0.443 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.