Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | GAST +100 ARST +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +1 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -4.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+37.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -2.5 (-1.5) | 148.2 (+32.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -1.8 (-0.8) | 147.3 (+33.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -2.3 (-1.3) | 145.0 (+36.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -1.8 (-0.8) | 145.0 (+36.0) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | GAST 82 – 81 ARST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ARST 85 – 59 GAST |
| Feb 18, 2023 | ARST 75 – 70 GAST |
| Mar 5, 2022 | GAST 65 – 62 ARST |
| Mar 6, 2021 | GAST 71 – 68 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#200) | -2.1 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#226) | -0.85 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#242) | -1.11 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#203) | 0.456 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 32.4% |
Game Analysis
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