Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | PENN -200 BRWN +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +21 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -4.6 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -4.1 (+16.9) | 144.2 (+14.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -3.4 (+17.6) | 144.8 (+14.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -3.6 (+17.4) | 143.5 (+15.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -3.0 (+18.0) | 144.8 (+14.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | PENN 82 – 61 BRWN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | PENN 81 – 73 BRWN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BRWN 82 – 72 PENN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BRWN 88 – 79 PENN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | BRWN 71 – 64 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-13 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 7-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#145) | 0.2 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#167) | -0.04 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#154) | -0.15 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#132) | 0.508 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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