Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | KU -225 BAY +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +16 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | KU -4.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -4.2 (+11.8) | 152.1 (+5.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -3.7 (+12.3) | 149.7 (+8.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -4.2 (+11.8) | 151.7 (+6.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -4.4 (+11.6) | 153.6 (+4.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | KU 80 – 62 BAY |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BAY 81 – 70 KU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BAY 82 – 74 KU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | KU 64 – 61 BAY |
| Jan 24, 2023 | BAY 75 – 69 KU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-8 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 16.4 (#8) | 16.1 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.39 (#3) | 3.01 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.01 (#4) | 3.73 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.655 (#2) | 0.634 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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