Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | KU -360 BAY +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +18 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | KU -8.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (-18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -7.8 (+10.2) | 152.5 (-10.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -7.5 (+10.5) | 153.8 (-11.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -7.0 (+11.0) | 154.3 (-12.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -7.0 (+11.0) | 154.5 (-12.5) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2025 | BAY 81 – 70 KU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BAY 82 – 74 KU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | KU 64 – 61 BAY |
| Feb 18, 2023 | KU 87 – 71 BAY |
| Jan 24, 2023 | BAY 75 – 69 KU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 18.4 (#17) | 13.8 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#18) | 1.99 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.22 (#20) | 2.91 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.666 (#10) | 0.554 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 40.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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