Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | KU -250 BAY +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +3 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | KU -2.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (-31.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -4.4 (-1.4) | 150.3 (-25.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -3.3 (-0.3) | 148.8 (-23.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -4.2 (-1.2) | 151.5 (-26.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -4.1 (-1.1) | 152.1 (-27.1) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | KU 80 – 62 BAY |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BAY 81 – 70 KU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BAY 82 – 74 KU |
| Feb 18, 2023 | KU 87 – 71 BAY |
| Jan 24, 2023 | BAY 75 – 69 KU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#14) | 16.8 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#10) | 2.42 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.32 (#10) | 2.97 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#8) | 0.615 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 41.2% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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