Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -188 KU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +8 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -5.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -6.5 (+1.5) | 148.0 (+8.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -6.2 (+1.8) | 148.7 (+7.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -5.8 (+2.2) | 148.1 (+7.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -6.1 (+1.9) | 149.4 (+6.6) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | KU 80 – 62 BAY |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BAY 81 – 70 KU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | KU 64 – 61 BAY |
| Feb 18, 2023 | KU 87 – 71 BAY |
| Jan 24, 2023 | BAY 75 – 69 KU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | KU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 17.4 (#11) | 15.6 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#18) | 2.61 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#20) | 3.10 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#18) | 0.625 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | KU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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