Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | PFW +120 NKU -154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +13 | 113 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -2.3 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -0.3 (-12.7) | 134.0 (-21.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -0.0 (-13.0) | 134.5 (-21.5) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -1.0 (-14.0) | 134.1 (-21.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -0.5 (-13.5) | 135.8 (-22.8) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NKU 87 – 71 PFW |
| Dec 6, 2025 | PFW 79 – 77 NKU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | NKU 79 – 74 PFW |
| Jan 1, 2025 | NKU 69 – 68 PFW |
| Jan 26, 2024 | PFW 63 – 58 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 64.7 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#222) | -1.8 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#217) | -0.23 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#222) | -0.14 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#194) | 0.507 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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