Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | TNST +100 SIUE +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +15 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | SIUE -0.1 (+15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+39.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -0.5 (+14.5) | 148.6 (+36.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -0.7 (+14.3) | 147.2 (+37.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -0.7 (+14.3) | 146.2 (+38.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -0.8 (+14.2) | 147.6 (+37.4) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | TNST 80 – 53 SIUE |
| Jan 23, 2026 | SIUE 74 – 66 TNST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SIUE 71 – 69 TNST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SIUE 84 – 72 TNST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SIUE 87 – 80 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#290) | -2.9 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#283) | -0.41 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#293) | -0.79 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#295) | 0.500 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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