Betting Lines
| Spread | SIUE -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | SIUE -118 TNST -102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIUE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIUE +8 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | SIUE -1.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -0.2 (+8.2) | 140.7 (-0.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIUE -0.2 (+7.8) | 140.1 (-0.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -0.5 (+8.5) | 137.4 (+2.6) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -0.2 (+8.2) | 140.0 (+0.0) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | TNST 80 – 53 SIUE |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SIUE 71 – 69 TNST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SIUE 84 – 72 TNST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SIUE 87 – 80 TNST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | TNST 76 – 71 SIUE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIUE | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-2 |
| Away | 8-7 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#262) | -4.0 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#273) | 0.03 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#270) | -0.59 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#321) | 0.505 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIUE | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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