Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | TNST -120 SIUE +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +5 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -2.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -1.9 (+3.1) | 140.8 (+6.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -1.7 (+3.3) | 137.9 (+9.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -2.1 (+2.9) | 139.1 (+7.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -2.1 (+2.9) | 140.3 (+6.7) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | TNST 80 – 53 SIUE |
| Jan 23, 2026 | SIUE 74 – 66 TNST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SIUE 71 – 69 TNST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SIUE 84 – 72 TNST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SIUE 87 – 80 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#277) | -5.8 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#258) | -0.83 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#263) | -1.20 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#225) | 0.474 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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