Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | TNST -155 SIUE +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +27 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -3.5 (+23.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -3.1 (+23.9) | 141.4 (-8.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -3.3 (+23.7) | 137.5 (-4.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -3.4 (+23.6) | 137.8 (-4.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -2.9 (+24.1) | 138.9 (-5.9) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | SIUE 74 – 66 TNST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SIUE 71 – 69 TNST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SIUE 84 – 72 TNST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SIUE 87 – 80 TNST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | TNST 76 – 71 SIUE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 10-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 65.9 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#237) | -5.3 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#196) | -0.86 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#226) | -1.12 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#125) | 0.448 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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